What Changes Were Announced in the Spring Forecast 2026?
By Georgia Holmes
The Spring Forecast 2026 updated the UK’s economic outlook, including forecasts for growth, inflation and government borrowing. Find out what it could mean for your household finances, pensions and investments.
The UK Spring Forecast 2026 provided an updated picture of the economy, government borrowing and the cost of living. Delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves on 3 March 2026, it outlined the latest expectations for economic growth, inflation and public finances.
Unlike a full Budget, the Spring Forecast did not introduce a new package of tax and spending measures. Instead, it updated the economic outlook and assessed how previously announced policies were expected to affect households and the wider economy.
For individuals, families, savers, investors and people approaching retirement, these forecasts can help explain the financial environment ahead. However, forecasts are not guarantees, and their implications will vary depending on individual circumstances.
Here are the key points from the Spring Forecast 2026 and what they could mean for your finances.
Economic growth is expected to slow in 2026
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the independent body responsible for producing the UK’s official economic and fiscal forecasts, revised its growth expectations for 2026.
It forecast that the UK economy would grow by 1.1% in 2026, down from its previous forecast of 1.4%. Growth was then expected to reach 1.6% in both 2027 and 2028, followed by 1.5% in 2029 and 2030.
The downgrade for 2026 reflected weaker economic data towards the end of 2025, a cooling labour market and subdued business confidence. The forecasts suggested that growth would strengthen in subsequent years, although economic uncertainty remained.
What this means for you: Slower economic growth does not automatically mean your personal finances will deteriorate. However, it is sensible to maintain a realistic household budget, avoid taking on unaffordable debt and consider whether your savings could cover an unexpected expense or interruption to your income.
If you are a business owner or self-employed, reviewing cash flow and maintaining an appropriate financial buffer may also help you prepare for periods of weaker demand.
Inflation was forecast to fall
The OBR lowered its average inflation forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 2.3%, partly reflecting lower food and energy prices in the data available when the forecast was prepared.
The government also said that measures announced in the Autumn Budget, including an expected £150 reduction in household energy bills and a freeze on regulated rail fares, were expected to reduce inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2026–27.
Lower inflation means prices are rising more slowly. It does not necessarily mean that prices will fall or that household bills will return to previous levels.
There was also an important caveat: the OBR completed its forecast before the escalation of conflict in the Middle East at the end of February 2026. Subsequent increases in oil and gas prices created a risk that inflation could be higher than forecast.
What this means for you: If inflation falls, it may become easier to manage increases in everyday expenses. However, your personal costs may still rise, particularly if you spend a significant proportion of your income on energy, food, transport or housing.
When planning your finances, use realistic assumptions about future…